A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."