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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet the latest field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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