The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Surprising Title Charge

A mere two months ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.

As per Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

A Formidable Weapon

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

  • Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
  • The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.

This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.

Lauren Duffy
Lauren Duffy

A blockchain developer and crypto analyst with over a decade of experience in fintech innovation and decentralized systems.